Square footage is only a starting point. Envelope, windows, air leakage, orientation and local design temperature all affect the load.
Planning range
Estimated installed cost
$8,000–$13,900
For a 1,800 sq. ft. Ontario home with a standard-efficiency gas furnace and central AC, existing ducts and available panel capacity.
EquipmentMatched indoor and outdoor equipment
$4,800–$8,500
Installation labourRemoval, placement, connections and commissioning
$2,800–$4,500
Extras & site workPermit allowance and disposal
$350–$900
Estimated annual space-heating cost
96% gas furnace$560/yr
Heat pump · seasonal COP 2.6$700/yr
Modelled from a coarse 19,500 BTU/sq. ft. annual heat demand, $0.30/m³ variable gas cost and $0.17/kWh marginal electricity cost. Fixed account charges, taxes, cooling, backup heat and household-specific insulation/air leakage are excluded. Utility prices vary by rate zone and price plan.
Compare local HVAC contractor quotesInstaller matching is being prepared. No leads are collected on this page.
Coming soon
Budget estimate only. Obtain a heat-loss/heat-gain calculation and written quotes from licensed contractors before purchasing equipment.
How to read the number
A budget range, not a substitute for design
Ask for the exact indoor/outdoor model combination and verify its certified performance in the AHRI Directory.
Confirm permits, disposal, thermostat, drain, venting, line set, duct changes and electrical work before comparing quotes.
Compare model numbers and scope—not just the bottom line. The cheapest estimate may omit work included by another contractor.
Ontario homeowner guide
Choose the system, then size it properly
Furnace vs. heat pump in Ontario winters
A high-efficiency gas furnace delivers familiar high-temperature heat and can be straightforward where gas and ducts already exist. A cold-climate air-source heat pump heats and cools with electricity and may run efficiently below freezing, but output and efficiency change with outdoor temperature.
For very cold conditions, the design may use electric resistance backup or a dual-fuel furnace. The installer should document the thermal balance point and the control changeover strategy rather than relying on default thermostat settings.
What HVAC sizing actually means
“One ton per X square feet” is not a design method. A room-by-room heat-loss and heat-gain calculation accounts for insulation, air sealing, windows, orientation and local weather. Oversizing can shorten cycles, reduce summer dehumidification and make temperatures less even.
- Request the design heating and cooling loads.
- Check heat-pump capacity at the local winter design temperature.
- Confirm ducts can carry the required airflow quietly.
When to repair vs. replace
Repair can make sense when the equipment is otherwise reliable, parts are available and the fix is modest. Replacement becomes easier to justify when a major component has failed, refrigerant work is impractical, comfort problems persist, or several repairs are stacking up.
Ask the technician to separate the immediate repair from recommended improvements, show the failed component and explain how the repair affects warranty and expected service life.
Efficiency labels to compare
AFUE describes annual fuel-use efficiency for furnaces. SEER2 rates seasonal cooling efficiency. HSPF2 rates seasonal heating performance for heat pumps. Higher ratings can reduce energy use, but actual savings depend on climate, controls, sizing and utility rates.
Use ratings for the exact matched system—not a single outdoor unit in isolation—and ask for the AHRI certificate number.
Rebate landscape · checked October 4, 2026
Check eligibility before equipment is ordered
Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program
Natural Resources Canada says the application intake period closed July 31, 2026. Previously approved applicants still face completion and documentation deadlines. Ontario delivery details can differ, so use the official page for status and instructions—do not rely on an installer’s verbal rebate promise.
Read the official NRCan program updateHome Renovation Savings & Energy Affordability Program
Ontario pathways may depend on heating fuel, equipment eligibility, household income and whether an energy assessment or pre-approval is required. Confirm the current rules and eligible product lists directly with the official program before signing a contract.
Ontario Home Renovation Savings information
Save on Energy: air-source heat pumps
FAQ
Ontario HVAC replacement questions
How much does it cost to replace a furnace and AC in Ontario?
For many 1,500–2,200 sq. ft. homes, a matched gas furnace and central AC replacement commonly falls in a broad planning range around $8,000–$16,000 before major duct or electrical work. Brand, capacity, efficiency, venting, refrigerant lines and access can move a quote outside that range.
Does a heat pump work during an Ontario winter?
Cold-climate heat pumps are designed to operate below freezing. Performance and available capacity still change as outdoor temperature falls, so the system must be selected against the home’s heat loss at the local design temperature and paired with an appropriate backup strategy where needed.
Do I need a 200-amp panel for a heat pump?
Not always. The answer depends on the heat pump, backup heat, existing electric loads and service capacity. A licensed electrical contractor can perform a load calculation. Some homes need only a circuit; others may need load management, a panel change or a service upgrade.
What should an HVAC replacement quote include?
Look for exact model numbers, capacity and ratings; labour; permit; removal and disposal; venting or refrigerant line work; electrical scope; thermostat; condensate drainage; duct changes; commissioning; warranty; and taxes. For a heat pump, ask for low-temperature capacity and the AHRI certificate.
Are HVAC rebates deducted in this calculator?
No. Programs and eligibility change, and rebate amounts are not assumed in the estimate. Check official program rules and obtain written confirmation before ordering equipment or treating a rebate as part of the budget.
Why is my contractor’s quote outside the estimate?
The calculator cannot see site access, load calculations, duct static pressure, service capacity, asbestos, venting, drainage, line-set route, code corrections or brand-specific pricing. Use the result as a budget check and compare written scopes from qualified contractors.
Method & sources
Pricing ranges are planning estimates calibrated to published 2025–2026 Ontario contractor ranges and broken into equipment, labour and common extras. Utility assumptions are a dated snapshot, not a live tariff.
- Ontario Energy Board — historical electricity rates: Nov. 1, 2025 RPP commodity rates used as a reference; delivery and regulatory charges vary by utility.
- Enbridge Gas — July 2026 Rate M1 notice: current residential delivery and customer-charge context; actual supply arrangements and zones differ.
- Natural Resources Canada — Air-source Heat Pump Sizing and Selection Toolkit.
- AHRI Directory of Certified Product Performance: verify exact matched-system ratings and certificates.
- Published Ontario 2026 HVAC cost guide: market-range cross-check; contractor-published pricing is not a government tariff.
Operating model uses 19,500 BTU/sq. ft./year as a neutral comparative heat-load proxy, 35,300 BTU per m³ of natural gas, 96% AFUE, and a fixed seasonal heat-pump COP of 2.6 so the comparison stays independent of the selected replacement system. It is not an energy audit or bill forecast.