NorthPeak True Cost · Episode 4
$8,000–$13,900 installed for an 1,800 sq ft home — and the sticker price is just the start. Model your system, extras, estimated rebates and running costs below.
The video
This calculator is the companion to Episode 4 of the NorthPeak True Cost series — the one where the sticker price is just the start.
“The REAL cost of a heat pump in Ontario? Eight to fourteen thousand installed — and the sticker price is just the start.” — Episode 4 hook, NorthPeak True Cost
About 1 ton per 500 sq ft is only a rule of thumb. A proper Manual J load calculation accounts for insulation, air sealing, windows and local weather — ask for the design heating and cooling loads, and check capacity at your local winter design temperature.
New circuits or a service upgrade are the classic “extra” discovered mid-job. Get a licensed electrical contractor to confirm service capacity and circuit requirements before you accept the heat pump quote as final.
The Ontario Home Renovation Savings program requires a participating contractor and, for several streams, written pre-approval before installation. Amounts and eligibility change — confirm on the official program page and never rely on an installer’s verbal rebate promise.
The biggest savings come from replacing oil or electric baseboard heat. Against cheap natural gas, a heat pump can cost slightly more per year to heat — use the calculator above with your actual utility rates before deciding.
Free checklist
A one-page printable checklist: sizing questions, quote line-items, the three hidden costs from Episode 4, and the rebate pre-approval steps — free.
Your name and email are sent to northpeakestimates@proton.me via FormSubmit so we can deliver the checklist. We never sell your information.
Our 2026 planning range for a cold-climate air-source heat pump in an 1,800 sq ft Ontario home is $8,000–$13,900 installed, before extras and rebates. Standard air-source systems cost less; ground-source (geothermal) systems cost substantially more.
Two common ones: electrical work (new circuits or a panel/service upgrade — quotes often assume your panel is fine) and ductwork modifications, which run about $350–$900 in extras. Complex installs needing a panel upgrade can add $1,500–$4,000.
Not always. Our model puts a heat pump at about $700 per year in heating energy for an 1,800 sq ft Ontario home versus about $560 for a 96% efficient gas furnace, at $0.17/kWh electricity and $0.30/m³ gas. Savings are largest when switching from oil or electric baseboard heat.
Ontario’s Home Renovation Savings program offers cold-climate air-source rebates of up to $7,500 ($1,250/ton) for non-gas homes and up to $2,000 ($500/ton) for Enbridge gas homes, plus up to $12,000 for geothermal. These are estimates — check the official program page before signing a contract. The federal Oil-to-Heat-Pump intake closed July 31, 2026.
Many installs need some ductwork modification or replacement, which runs $350–$900 in extras in our model. Some homes need nothing; others need a full duct overhaul — ask for ductwork to be scoped separately in the quote.
A common rule of thumb is about 1 ton of capacity per 500 sq ft, but that is only an estimate. A proper Manual J load calculation accounts for insulation, windows and local climate — ask your contractor for the design heating load, not just square footage.
Pricing checked October 2026. Ranges are rounded planning estimates, not quotes.